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POLICYMKT
About Purpose Predictions Methodology Membership
About Purpose Predictions Methodology Membership

Predictions

Five Categories x Multiple PolicyMaker Panels

1. CENTRAL BANKING

  • MPC: Feb Meeting
  • ECB: Feb Meeting
  • FOMC: Jan Meeting
  • Next FED Chair

    • 2. DOMESTIC LEGISLATION

  • France: Pensions Bill
  • Germany: Fiscal Package
  • UK: Finance Bill
  • US: $2K Tariff Checks

    • 3. TRADE: DEALS & TARIFFS

  • US x Russia
  • US x China
  • EU vs China
  • EU Entry x Ukraine

    • 4. ELECIONS: RESULTS + IMAPCTS

  • Brazil: New Term for PT
  • France: New PM
  • Germany: New Energy Policy
  • UK: New Fiscal Rules

    • 5. 'SPECIAL SITUATIONS'

  • China vs Taiwan
  • US vs Cuba
  • US vs Iran
  • NATO Trigger Article 5
    • scroll

    Panel Predictions

    USA-RU Positions in Jan-March [Indicative]

    Policy

    Outcomes:

    Panel View

    Quintile:

    Panel View

    Score:

    Mkt View

    Quintile:

    Mkt View

    Score:
    1. US Lift Sanctions (on Oligarchs + Firms)
    High
    60-70%
    Mxd
    50-60%
    2. Commodities Deal
    High
    60-70%
    Low
    30-40%
    3. DeNuclearisation Deal
    Very Low
    10-20%
    Very Low
    10-20%
    4. Force Election in Ukraine
    High
    70-80%
    Mxd
    40-50%
    5. 'Wild Card' for FIFA World Cup Entry
    High
    70-80%
    Very Low
    10-20%
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    PolicyMaker Panels:

    Profiles for US Trade + Foreign Policy Panel

    Positions Held Core Experience
    Chief of Staff, Secretary of State Served: 2011-2016
    Assistant to the President (Defence) Served: 2016-2020
    National Security Council/Advisor Served: 2006-2009
    House Foreign Affairs Cttee (R) Served: 2006-2010
    House Ways & Means Cttee (R) Served: 2012-2020
    House Intelligence Cttee (R) Served: 2016-2022

    General Disclosure:

    This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of date of publication and are subject to change. The information and opinions are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources deemed by PolicyMkt to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by PolicyMkt its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ’forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. This material is intended for institutional investors only and not for public distribution. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal. International investing involves risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation, and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging/developing markets or smaller capital markets.

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